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The New York Times reported this week that the World Health
Organization raised the Swine Flu alert level to phase 5, one level
below all-out global pandemic. "All countries should immediately
activate their pandemic preparedness plans," warns Dr. Margaret Chan,
director general of the W.H.O.
Phase 5 hasn't been declared since the Avian Influenza in 2005.
This should make you feel better, unless you or someone you know
came down with the Avian Flu.
Two salient characteristics of a virus are transmissibility and
virulence.
This H1N1 so-called "Swine Flu" virus, like almost all influenza A,
is VERY transmissible. Similar to colds, stomach bugs, chicken pox and
more
BUT---
Unless it's a virulent (i.e. vicious, dangerous, killer-type) strain
of influenza, the answer for most of us can be "so what?" And the CDC
certainly seems to be saying that this virus lacks those
characteristics. Not to be too facile about the 10, 20 or 30
thousand deaths that influenza causes in an average year, but that
translates into a very small percentage of our population.
For instance, influenza is fatal to about 35,000 Americans every
year. Nine out of ten of these fatalities occur in people over age
65-70, and a huge percentage (nobody quite agrees) occurs in people with
underlying medical issues like heart disease, lung disease or immune
compromise. Illness and deaths in otherwise healthy people will always
occur and make the best news stories, but this is an inaccurate
portrayal of influenza.
Stephen Hume's article in the Vancouver Sun perhaps says it best:
"'Eighty-one dead in Mexico; U.S. declares emergency,' read one of the
headlines Sunday. Yes, 81 dead in Mexico is something to grieve and is
cause for public concern. Each one of those dead represents the anguish
of a family. Yet, as the aphorism goes, one death is a tragedy, a
million deaths is a statistic. It's confusing the statistic for the
tragedy that exaggerates fear." (Emphasis added.)
This virus will spread all over, create panic, be identified as the
cause of many, many, many more deaths than it actually causes and then
will fade away with the real data gathered over the next year or more.
Today or tomorrow... phase 6 is expected.
Just to say it again, this flu poses no great threat to you or your
family.
Jay N. Gordon, MD, FAAP
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